A recent article by David Wessel of the Wall Street Journal did a great job of summarizing where job creation is headed for the manufacturing sector in the US.  I was in a meeting with a group of 15 CEO's yesterday when this exact topic came up.  Everyone was all excited about the headlines across the media inferring that it seems like there is a rebirth of the manufacturing sector in the US.  The following exert from the article provides a great summary of job creation in the manufacturing sector:

Manufacturing alone isn't going to put America back to work.

Recent news from the nation's factories has been good. In the past two years, manufacturing employment has grown by 334,000, a welcome upturn in a nation short of jobs.

This has kicked off a mini-euphoria. Every time a big global manufacturer opens or expands a plant in the U.S., someone casts it as a sign of a manufacturing renaissance. A sampling of headlines in the past few days captures the joy: "Rust Belt sees job gains on a revival of manufacturing, " says one. "Manufacturing and construction lift outlook on U.S. economy," says another.

The headlines are accurate, but, please, a little perspective.

Manufacturing is up lately in part because it was pushed down so far during the recession. That 334,000 increase in factory payrolls follows a decline of 2.3 million in the two years before that. Only two million jobs to go before manufacturing employs as many as it did four years ago.

Manufacturing, as of the government's December tally, employed 11.8 million from loading dock to executive suite. If that doubled, which it won't, that still wouldn't be enough jobs to put the 13.1 million currently unemployed to work. Manufacturing accounts for less than 9% of all the jobs in the U.S. today.

Manufacturing employment, as the chart accompanying this column shows, has been declining steadily for three decades in absolute numbers, and as a share of total employment for six decades. "These long-term trends related to technological change, productivity improvements and globalization are likely to continue," says Lawrence Katz, a Harvard University labor economist. He expects American factories to hire more as the economy improves, but adds, "We don't expect to restore agriculture as our primary source of employment growth. The same is true for manufacturing."

That's not to say American manufacturing is withering. As the charts illustrate, factories have been producing more with fewer workers.

Factory output, adjusted to remove the effects of changing prices, is still below the 2007 peak, but 4% higher than it was a decade ago. Payrolls are down 25% over that time. Output for each hour of work, or productivity, is up an extraordinary 40% as factories have adopted new technologies and production processes and demanded more skilled, better-trained workers.

Still, there's no doubt that manufacturing productivity is up—a lot. That is damping short-term demand for workers. But productivity, in the long run, is good. It's the reason we have more and better goods and services than our grandparents even though we don't work more hours.

It is why manufacturers can boost wages while enjoying rising profits at the same time. Lately, the combination of a huge number of unemployed workers competing for jobs in some places, weaker unions and intensified competition from abroad has kept manufacturing wages, on average, from climbing.

U.S. manufacturing may do OK in the decade ahead, particularly as the cost advantage of making things in China instead of the U.S. narrows. Executives who plan to produce more overseas to supply rapidly growing markets say they will maintain production in highly efficient U.S. plants to meet domestic demand.

There are good reasons to cheer for domestic manufacturing. Expanding factories have beneficial side effects. "If you get an auto-assembly plant, Al-Mart follows," says Ron Bloom, until recently President Barack Obama's manufacturing czar. "If you get a Wal-Mart, an auto-assembly plant doesn't follow."

Modern factory jobs, many of which require more brainpower and computer know-how than muscle, often pay well and are secure. Research and development—the key to maintaining the U.S. edge in innovation—sometimes migrate abroad when production does, a good reason to strive to keep production at home.

But manufacturing employment isn't going to grow nearly enough to return the U.S. to full employment. It isn't going to be the chief source of jobs for the next quarter-century. And, given the demands of the modern factory, it isn't going to be the ticket to the middle class for unskilled workers who haven't gone beyond high school. Pretending otherwise is foolish.

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The following article is from a recent WSJ article that provides great insight into Myanmar which is potentially the next emerging hotspot in Asia that could work for a variety of industries: 

Foreign businesses are ramping up interest in the long-isolated but potentially lucrative market of Myanmar, as signs of a thaw between its government and Western leaders raise hopes of a possible end to Western sanctions.

For now, the push is confined mainly to Asian companies that aren't covered by tough sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe since the late 1990s to punish Myanmar for its poor human-rights record. Some investors held back because of concerns about risks to their reputations, while others doubted the opportunities were worth pursuing and now are changing their minds.

Meanwhile, Western companies are looking for ways to get back in, though few are willing to discuss plans in public or in depth because of a possible backlash from customers who remain skeptical about recent reforms in the country. U.S. officials say they don't intend to lift sanctions until they see more changes in Myanmar, including more transparency in the country's dealings with North Korea.

A visit by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton this week, the first by a U.S. secretary of state in more than 50 years, has buoyed hopes a rapprochement is in store, and some European diplomats are pressing for looser sanctions at an annual review of their laws in April 2012.

Mrs. Clinton plans to arrive in the capital Naypyitaw on Wednesday and meet former military commander and President Thein Sein on Thursday. She travels to the commercial capital Yangon, formerly known as Rangoon, on Friday, where she will visit dissident Aung San Suu Kyi and leaders of ethnic minorities.

Myanmar's potential is too great for some investors to ignore. One of the last, large frontier markets in Asia, it is rich in oil, gas, timber and gems and has the potential to be a major rice and seafood exporter. Its tourism industry can rely on 900-year-old temple complexes and beaches to rival nearby Thailand, which attracts 15 million or more visitors a year. Myanmar also has low manufacturing wages, and Myanmar's intellectual class speaks English, with a legal system rooted in British common law.

The obstacles, however, are large. Electricity is spotty, roads and ports are crumbling and the financial system is immature.

Precise data on Myanmar are hard to come by and government statistics are treated with skepticism inside and outside the country. The United Nations estimates Myanmar has a population of 50 million, around the size of South Korea. The International Monetary Fund says Myanmar has the second-lowest per capita gross domestic product in Asia adjusted for local purchasing power, after Afghanistan.

Among the Western brands making early inroads: consumer products giant Unilever, which quietly began to sell goods through a distributor in Myanmar late last year. The company's products were being smuggled in by third parties anyway, according to a spokesman, who said the company sells "soup and soap" in Myanmar via its Thailand operation and doesn't maintain an office in Myanmar.

Western sanctions mostly bar importing goods from Myanmar, dealing with top leaders and tycoons, and making certain financial transactions. Sales into the country, with the exception of arms, generally aren't prevented.

Another Western company with business in Myanmar is U.S.-based Caterpillar Inc. According to the state newspaper New Light of Myanmar, government officials met in August with businessmen affiliated with Caterpillar to discuss sales of engines and other heavy machinery. A company spokesman didn't confirm the report but said, "Caterpillar and some foreign subsidiaries may, under some circumstances, sell products to independent dealers that resell to users in this country." He said the company "has no facilities in Myanmar," and is "in full compliance with all applicable laws."

Business delegations, meanwhile, are streaming through Yangon, including ones from Austria and Germany, while the city's main hotels—which suffered years of dismal occupancy rates—are now largely full with tourists and businesspeople. Asian companies from Taiwan, Thailand and elsewhere are eyeing investments in a roughly 100-square mile, or 250-square-kilometer, multibillion-dollar Dawei Special Economic Zone under development in southern Myanmar that will include roads, railways and a deep-sea port.

Myanmar was one of the richest countries in Southeast Asia in the 1950s. But a military dictatorship took over in 1962, nationalized industries and systematically impoverished the country as neighboring countries powered ahead.

 The regime changed to a capitalist system in the 1990s. But its reforms failed to alter Myanmar's underlying economic structure, which reserved most of its wealth for the ruling generals and their allies. The U.S. imposed sanctions in stages that prohibited new investments by Americans, blocked Myanmar exports into the U.S. and restricted financial transactions in Myanmar.
A handful of big Western companies, including France's Total SA, stayed, thanks to exceptions in the sanctions, including provisions allowing companies with pre-existing operations to remain. China's Cnooc Ltd., Thailand's PTT oil-and-gas firm and other Asian companies also expanded there.

Many other investors, Asian and Western, steered clear.

The country started to change last year, as the regime held Myanmar's first election in two decades. Although the U.S. and the European Union condemned the vote as a sham, Myanmar's nominally civilian government, which is stacked with former generals, has loosened press restrictions, freed some political prisoners and engaged in talks with Ms. Suu Kyi.

The government also passed a labor law, lowered taxes on foreign trade and consulted with the IMF to fix a currency system that deters investment. Last week, several local banks were given the right to trade Myanmar's kyat for dollars, euros and Singapore dollars and a new automatic teller machine appeared in Yangon for the first time in several years.

Outside investors are watching government plans to pass a foreign-investment law that would make it easier for foreigners to control local companies and land.

"Events are unfolding faster than anybody predicted," said Douglas Clayton, who runs Southeast Asia private-equity firm Leopard Capital LP and has been watching Myanmar for over 20 years.
Encouraged by last year's elections, closely held Singapore-based industrial-trading and services company Jebsen & Jessen set up a joint venture in the country in July.

"It's such a positive vibe," said Philipp Hoffmann, general manager of the venture, which is based in the commercial capital of Yangon. The company sells industrial chemicals, pumps and irrigation equipment to golf courses, a legacy of British colonial rule. "If Myanmar does it right, we could see it develop even faster than Vietnam," he said.

Luc de Waegh, who runs Myanmar-focused consulting firm West Indochina, based in Singapore, said he has received a flood of calls from multinational corporations looking to reestablish ties with old local partners.

"That Secretary Clinton is going, is a huge step. It will help to rectify the misperception that Myanmar is the same as North Korea," said Mr. de Waegh, who formerly ran British American Tobacco PLC's operation in Myanmar before the company left in 2003 under pressure from dissident groups and the U.K. government

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The United States continues to be one the highest cost places in the world for manufacturing.  The following article provides are very good summary of root causes:

The United States is one of the most expensive places on earth to manufacture products. Here's why.

By Stephen Gold, CEO, Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI

U.S. manufacturers were hammered in the recent "Great Recession." While the economy as a whole contracted 5.1% between December 2007 and June 2009, the manufacturing economy fell by more than 20%. And although its sharp rebound during the initial phase of the recovery provided enough steam to keep a struggling U.S. recovery from backsliding, the factory sector -- affected by the myriad challenges that have arisen in 2011 -- will, by the end of this year, likely have clawed only halfway back to its prerecession peak.

The good news is that a growing number of policymakers recognize the significant role the sector plays and have started talking about ways to reinvigorate manufacturing on these shores. But political talk is cheap, and worse, it can serve as a mere smokescreen. While American politicians point to all sorts of challenges facing manufacturing today, they rarely focus on the factors they can most readily influence. The factors they, in fact, have in many ways been responsible for creating. The factors that make the United States one of the most expensive places on earth to make a product.

This fall, MAPI, in conjunction with NAM's Manufacturing Institute, undertook an analysis of production costs in the United States relative to its top nine trading partners. We published an initial groundbreaking report documenting these underlying structural costs in 2003, and again in 2006 and 2008. This latest effort by MAPI economist Jeremy Leonard has found that despite the talk, little has changed over the past decade. In fact, the climate has worsened.

We found that structural costs -- corporate tax rates, employee benefits, tort litigation, regulatory compliance and energy -- are continuing to slowly eat away at the ability of U.S. manufacturers to compete effectively in the global marketplace. While manufacturers face a host of challenges, the data demonstrate that domestically imposed costs -- by commission or omission of government -- further undermine our ability to compete by adding at least 20% to the cost of making stuff in this country.

U.S. policymakers may pay lip service about the need to build a better business climate for manufacturers, but they've allowed these underlying cost pressures to undercut U.S.  manufacturing competitiveness. What's especially frustrating in Leonard's findings is that if it weren't for these structural nonproduction costs, American manufacturers would enjoy a cost advantage over virtually all of their industrial competitors -- and would have costs on par with such middle-income trading partners as South Korea.

The single most significant drag on manufacturing competitiveness is the United States' high corporate tax rate -- an average federal-state statutory rate of 40% that has not changed in decades. By "standing in place" while other countries reduce their own tax rates, the United States continues falling behind. On a trade-weighted basis, the U.S. rate is 8.6 percentage points higher than its nine largest trading partners, a substantial deterioration from the 7.8 percentage-point differential in 2008 and the 5.6 percentage-point differential in 2003. This represents the single most important piece of the total structural cost burden on U.S. manufacturers. Only Japanese manufacturers endure a higher corporate rate, while those producing goods in Taiwan, South Korea and China enjoy significantly lower rates than U.S. manufacturers.

The next largest cost burden on U.S. manufacturers comes in the form of employee benefits -- health care costs and pensions, primarily. While fiscal pressures overseas on publicly funded health systems have over the past decade narrowed the gap between the social insurance costs borne by U.S. and overseas manufacturers, Leonard's most recent analysis shows that gap increasing again. Employee-benefit costs in the United States today are 5.7 percentage points higher than those of the nine largest trading partners, compared with 3.6 percentage points in 2008, a reflection of price increases for health care services and insurance premiums well in excess of overall inflation. As a percent of manufacturing compensation, health care costs have risen from 7.2% in 2001 to 9.2% in 2007 to 9.7% this year. All this even before the Affordable Care Act, which promises to increase prices for companies even more, takes full effect.

In addition, the cost disadvantage with our major trading partners in tort costs is 1.6 percentage points, and in pollution-abatement costs is 1.8 percentage points. Only in the area of energy costs did MAPI and NAM find a cost advantage for U.S. manufacturers, of just under one percentage point.

If ever there were a wake-up call for U.S. policymakers about the costs they continue to impose on U.S. manufacturers, this is it.

Stephen Gold is president and CEO of the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, an executive education and business research organization in Arlington, Va.
 

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India announced a new national manufacturing policy that aims to boost the output of the manufacturing sector from 16% to 22% of gross domestic product and create 100 million new jobs. Under the policy at least seven National Investment and Manufacturing Zones ( NIMZ) are proposed to be set up in the North and West. A survey has been commissioned to set up similar zones in the South. These zones would be greenfield integrated industrial townships and the areas weill be at least 5,000 hectares. These economic development strategies will make India become a threat to other low cost offshore markets and more importantly the United States.  The United States needs to get our economic development strategies in order to avoid losing additional market share to offshore locations.  For details on the new policy, the following article will provide additional information http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/the-rice-bowl/india-approves-new-manufacturing-policy.  

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Even amid economic volatility, improving import cargo volume at the largest US ports will hopefully help the industrial real estate market recover and create opportunities for new distribution centers around the US.  Global Port Tracker covers the ports of Long Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York and New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. Their most recent report concluded the following:

- Import cargo volume at the busiest U.S. container ports is beginning to ramp up after a flat summer.

- The 10 ports the report tracks handled 1.32 million 20-foot-equivalent units in July, up 6 percent from June but down 4 percent from July 2010. August was expected to be flat with last year at an estimated 1.42 million TEUs.

- Year-over-year growth is beginning to resume in September, which the report predicts will rise 11.8 percent to 1.5 million TEUs. October is forecast at 1.48 million TEUs, up 9.5 percent; November, 1.33 million TEUs, up 8 percent; and December at 1.2 million TEUs, up 4.5 percent. January 2012 is forecast at 1.19 million TEUs, down 1 percent from January 2011.

- The total for 2011 is forecast at 15.4 million TEUs, up 4.3 percent from 2010. Last year’s 14.7 million TEUs was a 16 percent increase over the unusually low numbers in the recession year of 2009.

Overall, the growth trends seem to be going the right direction.  However, the unstable global economy could easily alter these forecasts. 

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The recent news about former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and her son, Camarines Sur Rep. Diosdado "Dato" Arroyo, are pushing for a bill that will pave the way for the organization of unions among call center workers should be of great concern to corporations with a presence in the country.  The bill proposes a Magna Carta for Call Center Workers.  There are a few key provisions mentioned, including the following:

1. - Rights to safe and healthy working environments;
2. - One-hour meal breaks;
3. - Privacy rights;
4. - Resting areas;
5. - Security of tenure and a living wage.

This legislation would greatly hamper growth in the Philippines and reduce the offshore savings benefits to US corporations.  A prime example is the recent disposition of Sykes' operations in Argentina which were basically closed down after unions caused extreme wage escalation which impacted their profitability in the region.  

We interviewed some local business leaders in the Philippines BPO industry who had just found about potential creation of unions.  They seemed less than optimistic that the legislation would pass.  It is recommended that the progress be closely monitored over the next year.     

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The latest move by AT&T to get federal approval for the merger with T-Mobile is clearly becoming a political battleground.  It is likely all of the jobs would simply be shifted from their outsourced vendors in offshore locations such as the Philippines to domestic outsourced vendor sites.  This strategy would avoid the unions trying to get control of the labor which enables AT&T to ultimately pay a lower labor costs for the employees.  It would also give AT&T the flexibility to slowly shift these jobs back offshore.  Bottom-line, the ability of the government or an independent third party to validate the long-term movement of these 5,000 jobs would be extremely difficult or impossible.  For additional information, please review the following article: http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/story/2011-08-31/ATampT-T-Mobile-pledge-to-bring-5000-jobs-to-US/50198654/1

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The recent bankruptcy of Evergreen Solar exemplifies the risks that community leaders face in a maturing industry that has been heavily subsidized by federal, state and local governments.   The Massachusetts-based solar materials manufacturer announced the closure of two manufacturing plants as a result of the company’s failure.   

In March, Evergreen shut down its massive manufacturing facility in Devens, Massachusetts, laying off 800 workers.   Following the shut down, the state of Massachusetts pulled the $58 million in incentives it gave Evergreen to bring jobs to the area. It was the largest tax incentive package in the state’s history.

In addition, a smaller manufacturing facility in Midland, Michigan was shuttered which employed around 80 people.  Evergreen came to Midland in 2008 and completed its $55 million, 31,400-square-foot building.  The solar company chose to build in Midland to be close to one of its suppliers, Dow Corning Corp., which provided materials that go into its string ribbon technology, and because of the $5.7 million it received in state and city tax incentives. 

The following negative press circulated after the announcement:

• Evergreen another example of wasted taxpayers' dollars under ARRA — Michigan Capitol Confidential
• Overrun by Chinese rivals, US solar company falters — Wall Street Journal
• Evergreen experiment is a failure, but fantasy that state can buy new jobs may live on — Boston Herald
• Nevergreen Solar: Another political investment goes bust — Wall Street Journal
• Solar power: the sun also sets — Financial Times

The demise of Evergreen Solar should make economic developers to think twice about their targeted industries and how they evaluate corporations seeking to expand in their communities.  Industries like the solar and wind sectors may sound appealing today but you really need to evaluate each company’s specific business plan and their financial backing.  The concept is really no different than what a bank or a landlord goes through when determining the credit worthiness of companies. 

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Once again, the challenges facing the call center industry in India make the cover of major newspapers.

India has to improve their education system if the country will successfully compete for call center and knowledge-based processing business in the future. With applicant-to-hire ratios of 3 out of 100 for quality English speaking call center representatives and employee attrition rates over 50% per year, it impossible for the labor supply to keep up with demand which has forced most of the India-based outsourcers to expand into other global geographies such as the Philippines, Latin America and, even the United States of America.

US-based outsourcers don’t even mention the word “India” when exploring offshore markets for expansion. With the current education system not generating college graduates with the same level of skills as other advanced countries, corporations are going to have to fill the void through intense training programs in India if they want to have accent neutral English-speaking employees.

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Japanese companies are not only reeling from damage to factories and suppliers in quake-hit northeastern Japan but are also suffering from fuel shortages in the northeast and power outages in the Tokyo area that are affecting production and distribution. Plant shutdowns in Japan threaten supplies to manufacturers across the globe of items from semiconductors to car parts. The following is a roundup of the impact of this month’s devastating earthquake and tsunami on Japanese manufacturers of cars and electronics.

AUTOMAKERS

• Toyota Motor Corp halted most operations at 18 factories that assemble Toyota and Lexus vehicles in Japan. It has restarted production of three hybrid models, the Prius, Lexus HS250h and CT200h, from March 28 at two factories but will suspend output for one day this week, on March 30. Toyota is making car parts at plants near its base in Toyota City, central Japan, for overseas assembly facilities and for repair parts. Toyota will delay the launch of the Prius wagon and minivan models in Japan from the original plan for the end of April.
• Honda Motor Co extended its production halt in Japan to April 3. Honda said last week a fifth of its Japan-based Tier 1 suppliers affected by the earthquake would take more than a week to recover. Honda made 69,170 cars in January in Japan, accounting for around a quarter of its production. On Thursday the company said it would resume production of motorcycles and power products at its Kumamoto plant in Kyushu, southern Japan.
• Nissan Motor Co resumed vehicle production at all assembly plants in Japan from Thursday, March 24, while supplies last. It resumed production of parts for overseas manufacturing and repair parts on March 21. Restoration continues at its damaged Iwaki engine factory in Tochigi prefecture, north of Tokyo. Nissan made 81,851 cars in January in Japan, where it manufactures 23 percent of its vehicles. Goldman Sachs has calculated that one day of lost production costs Nissan about 2 billion yen ($25 million) in profit.
• Mazda Motor Corp said on Thursday it would suspend production of vehicle repair parts and parts for overseas production at its Hofu factory in Yamaguchi on March 28, after having resumed limited operations there earlier this week. Its Hiroshima factory will continue limited production until further notice, a spokeswoman said.
• Suzuki Motor Corp will continue to assemble commercial trucks and vans at one of its plants through March 31 on a single shift. It will also restart car production at another plant on March 31 and continue production at an engine factory using parts in its inventory. It has not decided on production plans for April 1 and beyond.
• Fuji Heavy Industries Co will resume partial production of 660cc minivehicles on March 31 as parts supply and electricity become available, but it said a full resumption would take time. The maker of Subaru cars will keep production of non-mini vehicles suspended at least through March 31. It continues to manufacture vehicle parts for use at overseas assembly plants and vehicle repair parts.

ELECTRONICS MAKERS:

• Canon said two camera plants on the southern island of Kyushu would stay closed until the end of the month amid a shortage of parts. Production was halted at a third camera factory, with no date set for re-starting. Production at a lens factory north of Tokyo was suspended on Monday, while staff were inspecting an optical materials plant, also north of Tokyo.
• Elpida Memory Inc said on Monday it anticipated no interruptions to product supply following the quake. The world's third largest maker of DRAM chips said it had secured enough supplies to last until July and was in discussions about alternative suppliers from August onwards.
• Fujitsu said it would partially re-start a semiconductor factory in the northern prefecture of Iwate on April 3. This will be the last of its 6 quake-hit plants to re-open.
• Hitachi Ltd said it had partially re-started production at a factory north of Tokyo that makes lithium ion batteries for environmentally friendly cars. Hitachi counts General Motors among the customers for its batteries.
• Panasonic said some plants in northeast Japan remained closed including one making optical pick-ups and another assembling cameras and audio equipment.
• Renesas Electronics , the world's largest maker of micro-controllers, said production at three of its 22 factories in Japan is still halted. Two are in areas affected by power blackouts, while a third, the Hitachi-Naka factory, is yet to be fully inspected for damage following the quake. The company hopes to re-open the Hitachi-Naka site in July.
• Sony Corp said shortages of parts and raw materials would force it to suspend or reduce production at five plants in central and southern Japan making digital cameras, camera lenses, flat-screen televisions and other goods. Another plant may be affected by rolling power blackouts. Six production sites in northern Japan have been halted since the quake. If shortages continue, Sony may consider temporarily shifting some production overseas.
• Toshiba said output was suspended at a factory in Iwate prefecture making system LSI chips for microprocessors and image sensors, with no timeframe yet for a resumption of output. An assembly line at a plant making small liquid crystal displays for smartphones and other devices will be closed for a month to repair damaged machinery. OTHERS
• Shin-Etsu Chemical , the world's leading maker of silicon wafers, said its biggest wafer plant remained offline, along with a PVC factory. The firm has not said when it will restart operations. Some of the wafers made in Japan are shipped to chip companies overseas. Shin-Etsu is trying to boost production elsewhere, particularly of 300-mm wafers, to make up the shortfall.

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